The National Transitional Council, more commonly known as the Libyan rebels emerged victorious, concluded their victory with the death of Muammar Gaddaffi, who had ruled Libya for more than 30 years.
It is unclear, however, whether rebels would have secured victory if not for international support from Europe and North America. In contrast to the Iraq war, the United States and its allies managed to bring down a totalitarian dictatorship through economic and international support for a revolutionary movement rather than a full-scale military campaign. Nevertheless, is the United States’ sponsorship for a rebel group justifiable, or even logical?
History has proven that a successful revolution gives wake to a volatile political situation. Take for example the United States sponsorship of Mujahideen rebels against the communist government of Afghanistan. The United States supported the revolutionary movement originally to prevent the massacre and displacement of Afghans by the Red army much like how the United States and its allies imposed to a no fly zone on Gaddaffi’s government to prevent the air force from targeting protestors.
Both the NTC and the Afghan Mujahideen favored a transitional government to determine the future of the state. Yet in Afghanistan’s case, the transitional governments laid foundation for internal conflict, backed by foreign powers including the United States.
Due to the role of both democratic (the Democratic Party of Libya) and Islamist (Libyan Islamic Fighting group) elements of the revolutionary movement as well as Libya’s strategic importance as the world’s seventeenth largest oil producer, the outcome of Libya’s transitional government is as unpredictable as Afghanistan’s. Moreover, 19 nations intervened in Libya’s civil war in some way and each inevitably favors different outcomes for Libya’s government.
If the United States and the European Union back out of supporting the Libyan democratic process, the country will most likely give into internal conflicts, which are fueled by ideology and age old tribalism. This may lead to a second civil war, much like how Afghanistan descended into a civil war shortly after the fall of their communist government.
The United States supported a revolutionary movement in order to establish a democratic government in Libya. However, history proves that simply funding a revolutionary movement does not necessarily secure democracy. In order for the United States to justify its support for the NTC than they must continue to play a role in Libyan politics, by protecting and advocating a fair democratic process less Libya descend into conflict like Afghanistan. Whether or not the United States is willing to pay for increased involvement in Libya is left to be determined.
2011-11-22