Madness.
That’s the best way to describe the current situation in the Middle East. What began as an overlooked uprising in Tunisia has become an onrushing tide of freedom that has swept the Arab world. Tunisian ex-president Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia in January, Egyptian ex-president Hosni Mubarak resigned in February, and now, as March looms, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi appears to be the next despot to fall. Civil War has engulfed Lybia, as anti-Gaddafi protestors clash with local police for control of Libyan cities. As unrest continues to shake the Middle East, it begs the question: can the same methods that were used overthrow Ben Ali and Mubarak (mass demonstrations) be used to topple Gaddafi and othe dictators? In Libya’s case, yes. Although violent, the protests in Libya have dealt a serious blow to Gaddafi’s power. According to rebels, 30 percentof Lybia is now in control of protestors.
Dictators simply do not learn from past mistakes. For example, in Iran conservative government refused to make any concessions with the protestors (essentially, the overthrow of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran). Instead of giving the protestors what they wanted, they gave them 5.45 mm rounds instead. That just made the protestors in Iran angrier, and pressured more demonstrations and protests. The Iranian government clearly did not learn from their own history; when people began protesting against the pro-US monarchy in 1979, the government refused to implement reforms.
In Saudi Arabia, though, the people have a high level of respect towards the Islamic monarchy, as Saudis are conservative and traditional. Nevertheless, I think we can expect major protests there in the next few months, considering minor protests have already started in urban areas. If Saudi Arabia remains the only government non-reformed due to the Arab uprising, there will be international pressure on them to implement reform. How did East Germany fall towards the end of the 1980s? The USSR had been implementing reform and softening relations with the United States, so East Germany had motivation to implement reform as well.
The most important reason that mass demonstrations are going to work is the simple fact that Arabs are sick of living under authoritarian regimes and want a moderate democracy. Protests have proven to be a potent tactic against dictators, who do not know how to react to them without further inflaming protestors. Mass demonstrations will work in every Arab country, even against the Saudi monarchy.